How fast does the Buffalo drop water level?

[manumuskin]

I live in NJ and just had a wasted vacation to Arkansas a couple weeks ago because of the tornadoes and flooding on the upper Buffalo.What I need to know is how fast the river drops at Ponca.It is a two day drive for me to the river plus I may need a few days notice when asking for vacation so I'd like to know how high the river should be before I make my move so that I know it will havedecent floating levels at Ponca say five days later.I'd like to hit it at levels of say 3 to 4.8 ft.I was there at 5.0 ft and it was a little hairy for my wife who has no whitewater experience.i have a little but without my best friend as Bow man I don't want to push it so I won't put in higher then 4.8.I know the water level after a sharp spike drops almost as quickly and then drops slower and slower the lower it goes.I just need to know how high it should be before I ask for vacation knowing it may be five days in the future when i can put in.I understand that rain in between that time may spike it again so I will try to catch a spike with no additional rain for at least five or six days.
Thanks
Al

[Owl]

Below is a link to the USGS gauge at Ponca:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ar/nwis/uv/?s ... 0065,00060" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can view the last 120 days of information (gauge height, precip., etc). to get some idea of how the level drops in relation to precipitation.

Given the hot, dry weather pattern we're already beginning to experience I doubt there will be much more paddling on the upper Buffalo until fall (and then only if we're lucky).

[Richard]

As you can see, it can go from flood to too low within a week.

[cpresoz]

I see how fortunate we are that live an hour away and even then we wish for more predictability. Persistent rain can keep it up, and sometimes too far up, but after the rains stop, she drops very rapidly. There are periods of a few days when she stays up for an exciting run from Ponca to Kyles, but it can go from 2' over the low water bridge to 24" below within the week. Boxley to Ponca is less forgiving for length of time, and the Hailstone is a matter of a day or day and a half at most. I feel for those who live far away and need to plan far ahead for a good run.

[Cowper]

Short answers:

1) No matter how high the river goes, even record floods, 3 days later if there is no rain it will be below 5 feet.

2) To predict the level after any major "spike" in level, use this chart:
http://arkansascanoeclub.camp7.org/Defa ... eId=490064" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


And now, because I can't resist, the detailed answer:

This is so wild, I hardly believe it myself. But you can use the Cossatot River Level prediction chart for the Buffalo River at Ponca too. Normally we have to develop a chart for each river, but just for grins I looked at the last 120 days of data as Owl suggested, and compared it to the prediction of what the river would be using the Cossatot chart.

Here are some conclusions of that study and comparison:

1) Even when the Buffalo spiked to 18 feet on April 23, 3 days later it was down to 4.6 feet (within your specified comfort range).

2) Using the chart, on Day 1 after a rain and associated spike to greater than 7 feet, the Buffalo remained about 0.3 higher than what the chart predicted.

3) Using the chart, on Days 2, 3, 4, and 5 after the rain, the chart correctly predicted the Buffalo River level to within ~0.1 foot for BOTH of the spikes that occurred on 4/27 and 5/2. I picked these spikes because they were the only ones I could find where the water levels were clearly dropping steadily with no more rain. From 5 feet on down, the Buffalo followed the Cossatot predictions almost exactly for both events.

THAT IS AN UNCANNY LEVEL OF ACCURACY; even for the river the chart was developed for you don't normally hit it that close due to many variations in conditions such as spring conditions (saturated ground) vs summer conditions (dry ground, vegetation soaking up as much rain as it can), etc.

But what it tells me is that I'm not going to even bother to study more data to develop a new chart specifically for the Buffalo; I'm just going to use the existing chart for both rivers now.

[cpresoz]

That is so interesting, Cowper. On an associated topic, and maybe it's in the forum somewhere, and since some of us still talk in terms of height from the bottom of the Ponca low water bridge:
What are the equivalent values between the Ponca USGS gauge and the inches from bottom of the low water bridge that BOC posts every morning?

[Cowper]

According to USGS, 24" airspace is equal to 2.5 feet on the Ponca Gauge.

But truthfully, Painter Bob is the best man to answer that question, especially since I think the correlation changed recently due to gravel movement.

[cpresoz]

Thanks very much. That's sort of what I thought. So 0" airspace is equal to 4.5' on the Ponca USGS gauge with possible changes due to the recent flooding and gravel movement.

[manumuskin]

Thanks Cowper,That chart is exactly what i was looking for.would be nice if it was Buffalo specific but as you say,why bother if it is that accurate for the Buffalo anyway.Living so far away does make the expense and effort risky,I got screwed this year,I'm trying not to let it happen again next year.Thanks again.
Al