Looking ahead to Wednesday

[Schildwache]

It's supposed to rain tomorrow night so maybe the Frog or Lee Creek will be up again. Anybody able to make it Wednesday?

[TonyC]

Can't Wed,

but perhaps Thurs or Friday...

-Tony

[FarPastGone]

I have to absolutely be back in Fayetteville by 1:30 or I am going to be in a lot of trouble, but I am thinking some dawn patrol will be in order. I think my range is Lee Creek - Middle Fork, and maybe Stepp Creek if I am out of town before the birds are up (and it being in).

That being said, the models have sped the arrival of the system up a bit, so where as they were forecasting a late evening passage it may be more like late afternoon - early evening tomorrow (at least for Fayetteville). This is good, bad, and bad. Good because storm initiation (which will happen pretty much on top of us) will correspond to peak heating hours. Bad because it may not fall into the time range conducive to creeking any steeps on Wednesday morning. Bad because it may (and will likely) present a good chance for severe weather to affect western AR considering the energy that will be present in the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon.

My bet is Richland is best in show on Wednesday with a possibility for Beech/Hailstone and NW AR/SW MO will see at least one supercall capable of producing a tornado.

- Matt

[Shep]

Why are you a geologist instead of a meteorologist?

Shep

[Victor Caballeros]

I'm down if the IF's happen.

[ARzach]

Why are you a geologist instead of a meteorologist?

Shep

Matt doesn't want to limit himself to ONE dorky, rain-man-like, talent. He wants them all!

[Half Ton]

vic, glad to hear you're a go for wed if it does, in fact, rain right today/tonight.

let's hit up some of that good stuff you've been wanting to check out.

[Fish]

May be able to look ahead even further.... Here's what the NWS says this morning:

IF WE CAN SUM UP THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IN ONE WORD IT WOULD BE ACTIVE.
THE PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION EVERY
FEW DAYS. FRONTS WILL TEND TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS...STALL AND BACK
NORTH...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM.
AT TIMES...STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND SOURCES OF LIFT...AND
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE FREQUENCY OF SYSTEMS...RAINFALL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FOUR DAYS COULD AMOUNT TO A SOLID INCH OVER ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
TOWARD NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

[Victor Caballeros]

i HAVE TOMORROW OFF JON YOU HAVE MY NUMBER!

[ARzach]

...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
TOWARD NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

:twisted:

[Tmuse]

not gonna rain! go to work and go to school!

[A Savage spanke]

Think Matts a geographer, but could be wrong

[Fish]

Think Matts a geographer, but could be wrong

I thought he said he was a gopher herder?

[FarPastGone]

Lets not try to bias my expertise. I know everything. Especially gopher herding.

- Matt

[jermdog]

Strictly pocket gophers though.