Ice Storm Part 2: The 2010 Edition

[FarPastGone]

Winter Storm Watch was just issued for NWA and portions of Oklahoma for Wednesday night, Thursday, and possibly into Friday. Here is some of the NWS discussion:

4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE NEAR AN OKFUSKEE... WAGONER... SPRINGDALE... BERRYVILLE LINE. THE HEAVIER SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

NWS is not showing much in terms of Newton County being impacted at this time. One of 40/29 Meteorologists put out two maps of the expected extent based on the different forecast models, the first is from the NAM and European models, and the second is the GFS and Canadian models.





Sort of ironic thing about this one is that it is around the same time period as the one last year. Maybe if we wish it away or talk about it then it won't happen or will at least stay isolated to the NWA corner. Would be major suck if the creeks all took another hit like they did last year, or even half of what they did last year.

-Matt

[A Savage spanke]

Would be major suck if the creeks all took another hit like they did last year, or even half of what they did last year.

-Matt

So how exactly do you propose we stop this ice storm?

[Fish]

If it hits the same areas, there's hardly anything left to break off the trees. The last ice storm thinned out the weak-branch herd mighty well. Hope it doesn't hit though.

- Fish

[shelbyjohnson]

If it goes it might knock down a few of the widow makers that are still hanging on. I hope it stays the liquid variety though for the sake of us all.

[prophet]

Would be major suck if the creeks all took another hit like they did last year, or even half of what they did last year.

-Matt

So how exactly do you propose we stop this ice storm?

open up all the gas wells and heat the state. save the acorn crop!

[GN YAKN]

Dang Prophet! That sounds just a wee bit self serving

I'm planning on stocking up on adult beverages in case I get iced in on Thursday night going into Friday. Sounds like Friday will most likely be a snow day and too dangerous to get to work............

Let's prestage the extra gen at your place just in case you need it!

[prophet]

Dang Prophet! That sounds just a wee bit self serving

I'm planning on stocking up on adult beverages in case I get iced in on Thursday night going into Friday. Sounds like Friday will most likely be a snow day and too dangerous to get to work............

Let's prestage the extra gen at your place just in case you need it!

you misspelled gin

[Sasquatch]

Dang Prophet! That sounds just a wee bit self serving

I'm planning on stocking up on adult beverages in case I get iced in on Thursday night going into Friday. Sounds like Friday will most likely be a snow day and too dangerous to get to work............

Let's prestage the extra gen at your place just in case you need it!

you misspelled gin

Maybe he ment Generator?

[GN YAKN]

I guess the gin is to be consumed before we spark up the gen.....

220 er 230, whatever it takes!

[FarPastGone]

18z NAM is predicting a good icing followed by almost 2 feet of snow for Oklahoma, and .25 to .75 inches of ice to 1.5 feet of snow for NWA. Newest models have Arkansas getting half that, but looks like the model runs tonight should be a good indicator for what happens.

Fish and Shelby, I agree that the weakend branches have already probably been dropped from last year's storm. I was curious though if that would allow for ice to reach deeper into valleys and drainages. I guess the creeks that are already pretty bad won't really matter since they haven't been cleaned yet.

-Matt

[waterhog]

if we get another ice storm like the last one there are plenty of trees that got hammered that are just hangin on you can bet itll mess up the creeks theres plenty of hangers out there to do the job maybe not so much the bigger creeks but the steeps could definatly get hammered again

[Jim Krueger]

Don't forget, the gen can be run on gin in a pinch, however I would more enjoy sitting in the dark and enjoying the gin with a little vermouth, and an olive of course :)

Worthlessly Yours
Jim Moose

[okieboater]

As someone living in the Tulsa OK area, I am not looking forward to another ice storm. I have been through the last few ones and it was not pretty. A ton of money to clean up the mess, and people out of electric power for weeks or more.

I will take plain ole liquid rain to fill the creeks and reservoirs around our great states of AR and OK.

[FarPastGone]

00z NAM drops predictions for NWA by 1/3rd, still up to .75 inch of ice in parts of NWA possible, but snowfall predictions are more like 4-6 inches compared to the 18z NAM's 16 inch prediction. Looks like NWS isn't putting a lot of stake in the new NAM model, here is the Tulsa NWS discussion:

00Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR IS LOCKED IN. SUSPECT THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE TOO SLOW...SO NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST.

May not be as significant an event as originally estimated, but it will be interesting to see the 00Z GFS model run.

-Matt

EDIT: Nevermind, the GFS model posting, got my days mixed up.

[FarPastGone]

We've gone full circle, the 12z GFS/NAM are not looking so hot, one has NWA getting 1 - 1.75 inches of freezing and most the Ozarks getting near 1 inch. It is going to depend on the warm air aloft Thursday night and Friday.

-Matt