weather this weekend......

[tomcat]

got this in an email today........noaa says:


Thursday, September 11, 2008, 9:35 AM

Since yesterday, the forecast track of Hurricane Ike has shifted somewhat eastward. The computer-generated hurricane models that have been coming in this morning are in relatively good agreement with this.
Thus, today's forecast track would take the remnants of Ike through East Texas, then western and northern Arkansas, and then on toward southern Illinois. I need to stress that, even though more of the hurricane track guidance is coming into line, there have already been cases with Ike where the National Hurricane Center's track and the computer models'
track were showing reasonably good agreement on a particular day, only to see changes again the next day.

But, given today's forecast track, here's what we could expect in Arkansas.

The main effects on the state would likely begin during the day Saturday and continue through Sunday night.

Once again, much of Arkansas would be in a favorable area such that isolated tornadoes could be expected. Typically, these are most likely during the daytime and early evening hours after tropical systems move inland. Since Ike will be moving faster than Gustav was, this could make the chances for tornadoes somewhat greater.

It looks as though we could get some sustained winds in the 15 to 30 mph range, with some gusts up to around 40 mph or so. These winds would be most likely from later Saturday night into Sunday.

Rainfall amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range (with locally heavier amounts) seem most likely at this time. Totals will probably taper off the farther southeast you go in the state, given the current forecast track, such that the southeast corner of the state might pick up only 1 to 2 inches. However, if the forecast track shifts any farther toward the southeast in Arkansas, the forecast amounts in the southeast part of the state would need to be raised.

I plan to issue the next message by 10:00 AM Friday, unless there are substantial changes that would require an update this afternoon.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;