Gage at Ponca

[8WTflyrod]

So I'm new to this and my question might be silly to a seasoned waterman, but I'm watching and waiting for the right time to head to the Buffalo to canoe camp from Ponca to Pruitt. On 3/16 the gage was 2.8ft, and 3/23 it is 2.57ft. .23 ft (2-3/4 inches) fall in 7 days with negligible rainfall. My questions: 1) What amount of accumulated rainfall will it take to move the needle 5 Inches? I expect that the answer begins with, "well, it depends..."So I'm really just looking for a ballpark answer. 2 people and canoe camping gear and not wanting to drag the boat, I'm told I need 3 ft at least, at Ponca.
2) At what point do I change my plans and head up to the Current?
Scratching my head in Baton Rouge!

[Deuce]

Hi again! Not entirely sure I understand the question. You've established your minimum flow at 3' which is reasonable, so I guess if it's below that when you want to go you'll need to make alternate plans. But, if memory serves you also said you could go any time, so I think your best bet is to be ready to hit the road when it appears weather and water will work together in your favor. When will that be? As you said, it depends Right now it looks like your first shot at a convergence of adequate water and decent weather is the middle of next week with an additional window of several days. I base that hunch on the fact that the level at Ponca is ~7.5' right now, the fact that the upper drops out quickly from higher levels and attains relative stability closer to lower but still adequate levels and the fact that there's just enough rain in the seven day forecast to keep it freshened up. Now for the "it depends". March weather is a crap shoot, especially up there. The forecast could improve or it could deteriorate, and of course your and your partner's idea of decent weather might diverge considerably from mine.

With enough observation you'll learn to predict when conditions are likely to work in your favor, but really, you do just have to keep close tabs on the water and weather and be ready to go with no more than a day or two's notice to float camp the upper. The perfect opportunity will present itself. You'll just have to be ready to seize it.

Hope that helps.

[8WTflyrod]

Thanks Deuce
When I asked the question it had not rained in a while and the river was slowly falling and was about 2.5 ft. I felt I needed 5-6 inches more to float a loaded canoe so I was trying to find out how much it had to rain to raise the level a half foot. Then on Tuesday it rained 3.5 inches at Jasper in just a few hours and pegged the gage at 11 feet, closing the river to paddlers. Watching the gauges at Ponca and down river I concluded that 3.5 inches on dry ground would not soak in but just run off and create flood conditions and would slowly move downriver and might take almost a week to get to safe levels again. It looks like it goes up much faster than it goes down. So now I have a better feel for planning my trip. My original question was about speculating how much rain had to fall to move the level gauge inches, not feet. I read on an outfitters site that the river could rise 25ft in 24 hours, but they didn't mention how much rainfall had caused it. I don't want to drive 10 hours then sit in a hotel for 2-3 days. You mentioned there was enough rain in the 7 day forecast to keep it freshened up. That's what I need to learn about the Buffalo.

[Deuce]

You're getting the picture. Generally speaking the upper drops almost as quickly as it rises, at least down to a point. The good news is once it gets back down to ~5', which is actually a really good level, it stabilizes for a few days. You are also correct that the middle and lower sections hold much longer than the upper. You definitely need to make plans at some point to enjoy the entire river. There's not a section that isn't spectacular and well worth your time.